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Ethereum Network Stability: 30 Days Without a Reorg

Key Findings

No Reorganizations in 30 Days

By analyzing head tracking data from over 140 Xatu nodes, I found exactly zero slots with competing block roots in the past 30 days. Every slot had a single canonical block that was adopted by the network. This is remarkable stability for a decentralized consensus system.

Consistently Low Missed Block Rate

Daily missed block rates have remained between 0.15% and 0.31% over the past week:

Daily missed block rates (top) and median block arrival times (bottom). Both metrics show remarkable consistency.

Fast, Reliable Block Propagation

Block arrival times have been remarkably stable:

• Median: 1.9 seconds
• 95th percentile: 3.4 seconds
• 99th percentile: 5-15 seconds (varies by day)

The median has stayed within a tight 55ms range (1906-1961ms) across all 7 days, indicating extremely consistent network performance.

Entity Performance Varies

Not all validator entities perform equally. Looking at major entities with 50+ scheduled blocks:

Missed block rates by major validator entities. Coinbase leads with 0.05% missed, while Rocketpool has 2.58%.

The Mystery of 10,735 Missing Blocks

One finding stood out: 10,735 validators scheduled for blocks but with zero proposals. These validators aren't assigned to any known entity in the database. This represents:

• ~15% of all scheduled slots
• Potentially dissolved validators, exit queue backlogs, or unidentified operators
• A reminder that on-chain anonymity has tradeoffs for accountability

Data & Methodology

Source: Xatu mainnet data via ethpandaops MCP

Time range: January 26 - February 2, 2026

Observing nodes: 140+ Xatu collectors

Reorg Detection Query

SELECT slot, COUNT(DISTINCT block_root) AS competing_blocks
FROM mainnet.fct_head_first_seen_by_node
WHERE slot_start_date_time >= now() - INTERVAL 30 DAY
GROUP BY slot
HAVING competing_blocks > 1

Missed Block Detection

WITH scheduled AS (
  SELECT entity, COUNT() AS scheduled
  FROM mainnet.fct_block_proposer_entity
  WHERE slot_start_date_time >= now() - INTERVAL 7 DAY
  GROUP BY entity
),
proposed AS (
  SELECT e.entity, COUNT() AS proposed
  FROM mainnet.fct_block_proposer_entity e
  INNER JOIN mainnet.fct_block_head b ON e.slot = b.slot
  WHERE e.slot_start_date_time >= now() - INTERVAL 7 DAY
  GROUP BY e.entity
)
SELECT s.entity, s.scheduled, p.proposed,
       s.scheduled - p.proposed AS missed
FROM scheduled s LEFT JOIN proposed p ON s.entity = p.entity

Conclusions

What This Tells Us

Ethereum mainnet is operating at peak stability. The combination of:

• Zero reorgs in 30 days
• Sub-0.3% missed block rates
• Consistent sub-2-second block propagation
• 98.5%+ head accuracy

...suggests the consensus layer has matured significantly since the Merge. The client diversity improvements, better network connectivity, and refined gossipsub implementations appear to be paying dividends.

Limitations

• Xatu nodes are geographically concentrated (mostly US/EU)
• Entity attribution depends on third-party labeling
• 30 days is a relatively short window for reorg analysis
• No major network stress events occurred during this period